WASHINGTON — This Tuesday marks the nation’s first major Election Day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, with his leadership shaping the discourse in key races across the country, despite his absence from the campaign trail.

The spotlight falls on Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing governors this year. Though Trump lost both states last fall, he has a notable history of influencing political outcomes in statewide races. GOP candidates in these states are banking on aligning closely with Trump’s strategies, hoping to sustain the momentum from his past victories, despite the tendency for the party in the White House to face setbacks in off-year elections.

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Democratic candidates aim for strong showings in these elections as a way to reclaim relevance on the national stage. Their strategies vary significantly, ranging from moderate approaches focused on economic issues to progressive platforms advocating for expansive government spending.

In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist candidate, Zohran Mamdani, has garnered attention with a bold agenda that risks the ire of certain traditional voter bases, yet has attracted significant grassroots support.

A Referendum on Trump

The gubernatorial races in both states are shaping up to be a direct referendum on Trump’s policies and performance. His endorsement of candidates like Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey comes with limited in-person campaigning, leading some to question the strength of his influence.

The outcomes could provide the Republican Party with a path forward or set back their momentum, while presenting Democrats with an opportunity to regroup after a challenging year.

Two Democratic Philosophies

This election is also a litmus test for contrasting Democratic strategies as candidates either align with moderate values or actively embrace progressive ideals. With a notable public focus on rising costs and economic challenges, how voters respond may redefine Democratic positioning as they head towards the midterm elections.

Impact of the Federal Shutdown

Ongoing federal government shutdowns exacerbate the stakes, especially as many voters in these competitive races are impacted, potentially influencing their voting decisions.

Future Implications

The results in Virginia and New Jersey could resonate beyond state borders, impacting perceptions and strategies for both parties as they seek to position themselves in a rapidly changing political landscape.