In brief
For the first time in over a decade, the number of babies born to Japanese nationals in the first half of 2026 grew by 0.4% to 320,458, edging close to the 2025 pace. A rise in marriages in 2024 and 2025 is cited as a key factor by government data. The growth offers a tentative sign that Japan’s age‑and‑low‑birth‑rate trend may be slowing.
Japan saw its first rise in births to citizens in 11 years for the January‑June period in 2026, according to government data released Wednesday. The figure climbed 0.4 percent year‑on‑year to 320,458, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said.
The increase is almost on par with the pace recorded in 2025, when annual births to Japanese nationals hit a record low of 671,236. Xinhua reported that the modest rise in H1 2026 was supported in part by a rise in marriages in 2024 and 2025, the data showed.
Earlier projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had indicated that annual births would fall below 680,000 by 2040. The agency warned that the decline had accelerated faster than expected.
While officials view the uptick as a turning point, analysts note that the growth remains modest and that long‑term trends still point to a shrinking birth cohort. The data will be re‑examined as the year progresses.