Elmer Brown was following two friends on his four-wheeler last November, hunting caribou across a frozen channel in northern Alaska when the ice gave way. All three plunged into the frigid water. One friend drowned, and Brown, 45, later died of hypothermia, leaving behind five children.

“He was always helping other people and sharing his catch with the elders,” said his brother Jimmy Brown. “It’s been tough, not seeing him. I keep expecting him to walk in and tell me about his day.”

The friends had ventured onto the ice to hunt caribou, under pressure to make the most of shorter and less reliable hunting seasons, Jimmy Brown said.

It wasn’t the first time the family had lost someone to the ice. The Brown brothers’ father drowned in 1999 while seal hunting.

They’re among thousands who have died on ice across the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades as warming winters make conditions thinner and less predictable for those who fish, hunt and recreate on frozen lakes, rivers, and coastal waters. March and April are particularly dangerous months as winter conditions recede.

The risks are especially acute in Alaska, where the unpredictable ice season disrupts traditional hunting practices for Indigenous communities and pushes people to take chances. Though some communities are using satellite imagery to assess conditions and social media to share ice observations, technology can’t replace the predictability that generations once relied upon.

Transition seasons are deadliest. A study examined more than 4,000 winter drownings across 10 countries, including Canada, the U.S., Russia, and Japan, over a 26-year period ending in 2017. It found drowning rates surged fivefold when winter temperatures rose just below freezing, with peaks in March and April.

A professor of sea ice geophysics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks remarked, “The Arctic only works when it’s frozen — that’s why it’s the Arctic. Everything up here has evolved to be frozen for a majority of the year. And when that isn’t the case anymore, it all starts to fall apart.”

As climate-driven changes keep disrupting hunting patterns and food supply, local communities face increasing food insecurity. Jimmy Brown is still adjusting to life without his brother and tries to support his daughter during her senior year of high school, saying, “I’m just thankful I can be there for her.” The impact of warming winters remains, prompting necessary discussions around safety and sustainability in hunting practices.