The Nigerian government asserts that jihadist factions Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) are behind the ongoing wave of abductions in north-western and central Nigeria, a claim disputed by numerous analysts. They argue that local criminal gangs, often referred to as 'bandits', are largely responsible for the kidnappings that have become rampant in recent months.

This marks the first occasion that the government has explicitly named the jihadist groups as culprits, although it has not provided any tangible evidence to substantiate its assertions. Kidnaps for ransom have emerged as a lucrative enterprise in Nigeria, involving a mix of groups from organized criminal gangs to jihadists.

Recent reports indicate a disturbing pattern in the past few weeks, which included three mass kidnappings:

  • On November 17, in Maga, Kebbi state, two individuals were killed and 25 people—among them a teacher—were abducted; fortunately, all were subsequently freed.
  • On November 18, at Christ Apostolic Church in Eruku, Kwara state, two were killed and 38 were taken hostage, all of whom were freed days later.
  • Most alarming, on November 21, more than 250 children and 12 staff members reportedly have been kidnapped from St Mary’s Catholic School in Niger state, escalating fears for their safety.

Though ransoms are alleged to have been paid in previous instances of kidnapping, the government maintains this practice is forbidden by law. Presidential spokesman Sunday Dare refrained from confirming any ransoms had been paid for recently released hostages, stating only: Whatever processes are involved - kinetic, non-kinetic, negotiations, etc - have been successful. He emphasized ongoing threats from ISWAP and remnants of Boko Haram operating in the country.

Yet analysts like Bulama Bukarti contest this narrative, indicating the kidnappings are primarily the work of local 'bandits' as opposed to organized jihadist efforts. This distinction is pivotal, as Boko Haram and ISWAP primarily conduct operations in northeastern Nigeria, far removed from the bandit activity dominating the northwest.

The international community’s attention has been drawn to Nigeria’s security predicament, particularly following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump threatening military action if the Nigerian government failed to secure Christians from violence, although officials assert that individuals from all faith backgrounds are affected by the kidnappings.

In recent weeks, Amnesty International and other watchdogs have pointed to a chilling trend of escalating violence and insecurity in Nigeria, further complicating efforts towards resolution and peace.