In brief
Researchers modelling cervical cancer trends forecast 1.08 million new cases and 522,000 deaths worldwide by 2050. The rise, especially pronounced in sub‑Saharan Africa, highlights a gap in WHO's elimination targets and calls for expanded HPV vaccination, screening and treatment.
A modelling study published in Nature Medicine has projected that global cervical cancer cases will rise 20.2 percent and deaths 39.3 percent by 2050, despite the disease being largely preventable. The analysis, conducted by Australian and international researchers, examined data from 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023.
An estimated 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths occurred worldwide in 2023, according to Xinhua and a Global Burden of Disease study.
By 2050, the study expects 1.08 million annual cases and 522,000 deaths worldwide, up 20.2 percent from 2024 levels for cases and 39.3 percent for deaths.
Sub‑Saharan Africa is projected to face the sharpest increases, with cases slated to rise by 88.7 percent and deaths by 95.4 percent, reaching an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050.
None of the seven WHO‑defined global regions is projected to reach the elimination threshold of fewer than four cervical cancer cases per 100,000 women by 2050 if current trends continue, the study warned.
The authors called for broader access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, screening and treatment, noting that in 2023 the age‑standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was more than four times higher in low‑income countries than in high‑income countries, while the mortality rate was more than seven times higher.
