Trump’s Return and the Evolving Dynamics in Middle Eastern Politics

The article examines the shifting realities in Israel and Palestine as Donald Trump reenters the White House. The focus is on his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in contrast to Biden’s strategies, the implications of Netanyahu’s coalition constraints, and the intertwined roles of regional powers like Saudi Arabia.

Donald Trump is set to re-enter the Oval Office amid significant changes in the Middle East landscape since his first term. The former president effectively navigated through political delays from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultranationalist allies, facilitating the acceptance of a ceasefire deal in Gaza that had been previously stalled under President Joe Biden. This re-establishment of dialogue comes as the United States continues to exert pressure on regional players like Hamas while sidestepping delicate Israeli realities.

During Biden's presidency, pressure on Israel was notably absent, as he grappled with balancing American domestic politics and his administration's support for Israel amidst criticisms of its military actions in Gaza, which have been devastating for civilians. Given the ongoing coalition crisis facing Netanyahu, whose allies demand resuming conflict with Hamas, Trump may find Israel's political environment far more complicated than it was previously.

Trump's initial term showcased his readiness to disrupt conventional diplomatic practices, as highlighted by symbolic events such as the embassy move to Jerusalem—a gesture heavily supported by right-wing factions in Israel. That day, 14 May 2018, epitomized this duality of American diplomacy juxtaposed against violent repression in Gaza, as Israeli forces responded ruthlessly to Palestinian protests, resulting in considerable loss.

In light of the recent escalation following Hamas' unprecedented assault on October 7, 2023, where losses surged on both sides, the dynamics of negotiations have intensified yet the rationale remains steadfast. The Biden administration attempted to deepen the Abraham Accords, pivoting towards a vision that included broader regional stability in exchange for Palestinian rights. Trump, conversely, has previously shown little regard for Palestinian sovereignty, opting instead for rapid policy shifts aimed at immediate Israeli interests.

While Trump’s return may reignite old support among Israel’s right-wing factions, he will face new challenges in dealing with leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who demands genuine progress on Palestinian independence in any future agreements. The geopolitical chessboard has shifted, and Trump will likely confront a more assertive Middle East, where the complexity of relationships requires him to reassess his approach.

As discussions of a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia gain traction, Trump’s historical track record suggests he may be more transactional than his predecessor, posing questions about the concessions he is willing to make for regional stability. With both Americans and Israelis highly attuned to evolving Palestinian aspirations, the outcome of Trump’s second term may hinge on finding a balance between competing demands—a nuanced and delicate process fraught with high stakes for all involved.