Indian Americans Express Concerns Over Future US-India Relations Amid Trump's Possible Return

The 2024 Indian-American Survey reveals a growing optimism about India's trajectory yet significant concerns over US-India relations under a potential second Trump administration. While many still support Modi, opinions are polarized along party lines, with Democrats favoring Biden and Republicans preferring Trump for diplomatic ties.

Indian Americans are increasingly optimistic regarding India’s future but express significant apprehension about the prospects of US-India relations under a possible second term for former President Donald Trump, according to a new survey from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov, conducted in October 2023.

The 2024 Indian-American Survey examines the political attitudes of Indian-Americans amidst evolving international ties, particularly between India and the US. Key elections took place in the US and India last year, which affected perceptions already strained by incidents like the US federal indictment of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and allegations connecting the Indian government to an assassination plot in the US.

The survey, which included responses from 1,206 adult Indian-Americans, investigates crucial questions regarding how Indian Americans view the management of US-India relations under the Biden administration versus a potential Trump presidency, as well as their evaluations of India’s political future leading up to the 2024 elections.

Findings indicate that Indian Americans believe the Biden administration has managed US-India relations more favorably compared to Trump’s first term. A hypothetical presidency under Kamala Harris is perceived as a more advantageous scenario for bilateral ties than a second Trump administration. The survey also showcased strong partisan divides: while 66% of Indian-American Republicans consider Trump better for US-India relations, just 8% of Democrats share this view. In contrast, half of Indian-American Democrats support Biden’s policies, overshadowing a minority of 15% who favor Trump.

Tensions in US-India relations flared recently with various controversies surrounding alleged assassination plots of Indian dissidents on US soil, although familiarity with these issues among the Indian-American community remains low, as approximately half of respondents reported being unaware of the assassination plot.

Political opinions further divide along party lines regarding the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with Democratic respondents leaning towards empathy for Palestinians, while Republican respondents typically favor Israeli perspectives. Following the recent violence in Gaza, about 40% of Indian Americans feel President Biden has been too sympathetic towards Israel.

Despite these concerns, nearly half of the Indian-Americans surveyed feel that India is headed in the right direction, a notable rise in optimism compared to four years ago. Additionally, the same proportion approves of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's governance, indicating a significant level of support.

The survey raises intriguing questions about the political landscape of Indian Americans and their responses to governmental issues both domestically and in India. Despite a prevalent support for Modi’s direction for India, many remain detached from intricate details regarding US India relations, suggesting gaps in information and engagement.

Research co-author Milan Vaishnav suggested that the disparity in perspectives among Indian Americans may be attributed to a “selective engagement” with political news influenced by their demographic background and the nature of their integration into US society.

In summary, Indian Americans retain a complex and nuanced view towards both the Trump and Biden administrations regarding bilateral ties, reflecting broader political trends influenced by their unique experiences and national backgrounds.