In brief
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has said that global average temperatures in 2026 will virtually certainly rise above the 1.5 °C threshold, making 2026 the second calendar year to reach that level after 2024. This flash report stresses the urgent need for life‑saving climate action. The announcement underscores a continuing trend of rapid warming.
On Friday, the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that global average temperatures in 2026 are now virtually certain to exceed the 1.5 °C threshold above pre‑industrial levels, an outcome that makes 2026 the second calendar year to cross that target after 2024.
The finding was originally contained in a flash report released late on Thursday, which echoed the same conclusion: that the upcoming year will almost certainly surpass the critical 1.5 °C mark. The report, published on Xinhua, highlighted that meeting the Paris Agreement target will become increasingly urgent as the 2026 benchmark is approached.
Both Xinhua releases refer to the same data set from the European Union’s Copernicus programme, confirming that the statistical certainty of exceeding 1.5 °C in 2026 is now very high. The service’s confidence is based on the latest climate modelling and observations, and marks another year in which the world has already risen to the threshold.
While no direct quotes from Copernicus officials appear in the releases, the statements from the agency emphasize the importance of intensifying mitigation efforts. The message conveys that the window to reduce emissions has narrowed, and that urgent action is required to keep the risk of breaching the 1.5 °C limit as low as possible.