Welcome to the shutdown, 2025 edition. On Tuesday evening, the US Senate was unable to pass a spending bill that would have kept the US government funded, and for the first time in nearly seven years, federal operations have been drastically curtailed.

At some point, this shutdown – like all the ones before it - will end. It may take days; it may take weeks, but eventually, as public pressure and political pain grows, one side or the other will yield.

Here are four scenarios for how that might play out.

Democrats quickly break ranks

Senate Democrats shot down a Republican spending bill that would have kept the government operating until November, but that vote may have contained the seeds of their defeat.

While forty four Democrats (and Republican iconoclast Rand Paul) voted no, two Democrats and one Democrat-allied independent sided with the Republican majority.

Independent Angus King of Maine is always a bit of a wildcard. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has been charting his own path for nearly a year. But Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, while not a liberal firebrand, is not your typical political maverick.

She is up for re-election in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024 and which has been slowly trending Republican for years. In her statement explaining her vote, she expressed concern about the economic toll government closure would have on Nevada.

And while incumbents from Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire have chosen to retire rather than run for re-election, they might worry that a shutdown puts Democratic control of their seats at risk, too.

Republican Senate leader John Thune says that he is already hearing from some Democrats who are uneasy with the way the shutdown is playing out.

There were no new defections during the vote on Wednesday, but if five more Democrats break ranks, the shutdown will end – whether the rest of the Democratic Party wants it to or not.

Democrats back down

Even if the Democrats stay (relatively) united, the pressure on them to abandon the fight is likely to increase as the shutdown drags on.

Government employees are a key constituency in the party, and they will be the ones feeling the pain most immediately from delayed paychecks and the possibility that the Trump administration will use the shutdown to further slash programmes and turn their furloughs into permanent unemployment.

The American public as a whole will also start feeling the bite through curtailed government services and economic disruption.

Typically the party that triggers a shutdown and is making the policy demands – in this case, the Democrats - is the one that accrues the public's blame. If that's how this plays out, the party may conclude that they've made as much of a point as they can and cut their losses.

Even without tangible gains, they may find some comfort in having put a spotlight on the expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts that will be kicking in for tens of millions of Americans in the coming months. When that blame game starts, such thinking might make them better positioned politically.

The Democratic base that has been demanding their party dig in and fight the Trump administration won't be fully satisfied, but it's the kind of off-ramp the party leadership might be able to live with.

Republicans make concessions

At the moment, Republicans feel like they are in a position of strength - and are contemplating new ways to increase the pain for Democrats. But they could miscalculate, ending up being the ones who back away.

They've been behind most of the shutdowns in the past, and the public could hold them responsible this time, too. Maybe it's out of habit or because, in their zeal to slash government services, they could overplay their hand.

In this scenario, Republicans may provide some sufficient guarantees to Democrats that they will help to extend the health-insurance subsidies.

That's not unthinkable, given that Republicans are divided over whether those subsidies should continue. That could ultimately boost their electoral prospects while defusing an obvious line of attack for Democrats.

Republicans have said they won't negotiate with political hostage-takers, but some compromise might exist beneath the acrimony.

The shutdown stretches on (and both sides lose)

If this continues, it may not matter who wins the confrontation by forcing the other side to yield. The last government shutdown lasted a record of 35 days, only ending when air travel was nearing disruption. This time could be more severe.

If it persists long enough, both sides stand to suffer at the ballot box, setting the stage for the next wave of politicians promising to overhaul the status quo.

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