In brief
IMEF releases data indicating manufacturing remains in contraction, albeit slightly steadier, while services and commerce re-enter expansion. The report cautions that the recovery is uneven and premature to confirm a lasting turnaround, despite government growth forecasts of 1‑2% by end‑2026.
At 11:06 a.m. UTC on November 4, Xinhua reported that Mexico’s economy is showing early signs of improvement, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF). The institute’s latest leading‑indicator report noted a modest uptick in the manufacturing sector and a significant rebound in services and commerce.
The IMEF manufacturing index edged from 49.7 in September to 49.8 in October, staying just below the neutrality threshold and still in the contraction zone for the 31st month running. By contrast, the non‑manufacturing index rose from 49.7 to 50.6, moving back into the expansion zone after a prolonged slump. The report highlighted a stabilizing manufacturing sector driven by stronger demand and employment, although disparities among its components persist.
The institute cautioned that, "the evolution of their respective trend‑cycle components suggests that the recovery remains fragile and uneven; therefore, it is still premature to confirm a shift in the cycle toward a phase of solid and sustained expansion," according to the IMEF.
IMEF added that Mexico’s government projects economic growth of between 1 and 2 percent by the end of 2026. The country’s economy expanded 0.5 percent in 2025, largely due to a robust services sector, while industrial activity suffered a slowdown linked to weaker demand from the United States.
While the data confirm modest improvements in manufacturing steadiness and a renewed expansion in services and commerce, the report explicitly treats the overall recovery as unconfirmed and fragile. The economy’s trajectory, therefore, remains uneven, with no definitive evidence yet of a sustained turnaround.
