Two overloaded boats carrying an estimated 530 Rohingya refugees left Myanmar’s Rakhine state on 29 June and have not been heard from since.


The vessels, converted fishing trawlers barely seaworthy and powered by unreliable engines, likely capsized amid the new monsoon’s rough seas. Many crews were women and children, so chances of survival were slim.


Rakhine has been a war zone for years: the Arakan Army has driven much of the Myanmar military out of the province, leaving the capital Sittwe accessible only by air and sea. Telecommunication has been cut, making contact difficult.


Chris Lewa of the Arakan Project, who tracks the refugees’ likely fate, has pieced together that the boats left on the same day—one early morning, the other later that day. They were headed south towards the coast where smaller boats would ferry the refugees to land in Thailand or the Malay peninsula.


In Bangladesh, one body washed up on shore days after the departure, and fishermen found more bodies a week later between the Irrawaddy Delta and Mon state. Lewa believes these findings suggest both ships capsized, one early and one after a week at sea.


Rohingyas today live in over‑crowded camps in southern Bangladesh, where aid is scarce, jobs are scarce and organized crime thrives. With no safe means to leave, many resort to perilous sea routes that smugglers organize from Thai to Malaysian and Indonesian shores.


Smugglers fill boats with as many people as possible, charging up to $4,000, and use satellite phones to coordinate transfers to local fishermen in Thailand or Indonesia, who then bring refugees to beaches for clandestine movement into Malaysia.


While Thailand once blocked land routes against smuggling, it now serves as the main transit hub due to the navy’s efficient interdiction of direct sea routes into Malaysia. The UNHCR has recorded 4,700 Rohingyas leaving in 74 boats so far this year, with estimates of 10,000 since last September. No country in the region currently offers a safer, legal exit.


Image credit: AFP via Getty Images – two boats carrying Rohingyas off the coast of Aceh, Indonesia.