A new study indicates that the death toll in Gaza from the ongoing war may be significantly higher than previously reported figures from Hamas-run health authorities, according to findings published in The Lancet. The research, spearheaded by a UK team, analyzed data covering the conflict’s initial nine months, following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. It combined information from the Palestinian health ministry, a survey of families, and obituaries, estimating that by June 30, 2024, deaths from traumatic injuries could reach up to 64,260—41% more than the official figures suggest.
Gaza War Death Toll Likely Undercounted, New Research Reveals
Gaza War Death Toll Likely Undercounted, New Research Reveals
Research published in The Lancet suggests a substantial increase in the Palestinian death toll from the Gaza conflict, contradicting official reports.
The UN has conventionally treated the health ministry’s data as reliable, even though it fails to differentiate between combatants and civilians. While the ministry currently reports nearly 46,006 dead—mostly civilians—Israeli authorities assert these figures cannot be trusted. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have neutralized about 17,000 terrorists as part of their campaign, yet the methodology behind this statistic remains unclear. The IDF asserts its operations focus solely on combatants while striving to minimize civilian casualties.
Challenges in verifying these claims have been further complicated by restrictions on international media access to Gaza, leaving little room for independent assessments. The researchers employed a technique known as "capture-recapture," which helps quantify deaths by identifying overlaps in various counting methods. This approach has been used successfully in previous conflict death toll estimations.
The Lancet report estimates death tolls between 55,298 and 78,525, in stark contrast to the health ministry’s count of 37,877. The results are subject to varying accuracy based on how deaths are categorized. The researchers also found that a significant 59% of those whose data was analyzed were women, children, or the elderly.
The ongoing crisis escalated following Hamas's attack, resulting in significant casualties, including 1,200 killings and numerous hostages taken back to Gaza. As the war intensifies, the discrepancies in reported deaths continue to elicit debate and skepticism from multiple stakeholders in the region.
Challenges in verifying these claims have been further complicated by restrictions on international media access to Gaza, leaving little room for independent assessments. The researchers employed a technique known as "capture-recapture," which helps quantify deaths by identifying overlaps in various counting methods. This approach has been used successfully in previous conflict death toll estimations.
The Lancet report estimates death tolls between 55,298 and 78,525, in stark contrast to the health ministry’s count of 37,877. The results are subject to varying accuracy based on how deaths are categorized. The researchers also found that a significant 59% of those whose data was analyzed were women, children, or the elderly.
The ongoing crisis escalated following Hamas's attack, resulting in significant casualties, including 1,200 killings and numerous hostages taken back to Gaza. As the war intensifies, the discrepancies in reported deaths continue to elicit debate and skepticism from multiple stakeholders in the region.
