Key Insights from the New US-Ukraine Resources Agreement

The US and Ukraine have formalized a significant resources deal designed to support Ukraine while ensuring that Washington retains access to its natural resources, amid contrasting political narratives and ongoing military assistance discussions.

The US and Ukraine have signed a pivotal deal granting Washington access to the Eastern European nation's natural resources, serving as a crucial investment fund for Ukraine in its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression. The agreement, which has been in the works for months, is aimed at solidifying US support for Ukraine nearly three years after the war began. While the BBC has reviewed a draft of the deal, the final text remains undisclosed. Here are seven essential takeaways from this landmark agreement.

**No Financial Reimbursement for Ukraine**
Former President Trump has previously suggested that Ukraine must repay the estimated $350 billion in US aid provided throughout the conflict, a claim that President Zelensky has firmly rejected. However, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has confirmed that the agreement does not impose any obligation for Ukraine to make such repayments.

**Ukraine’s Resource Riches**
Trump has characterized the deal as a victory, contending that the US stands to gain significantly more than the financial aid initially extended. While discussions primarily focus on Ukraine's mineral wealth, the agreement encompasses provisions for oil and gas projects, along with necessary infrastructure developments, cementing an investment relationship between the two nations.

**Voicing a Stronger Stance Against Russia**
The language from the US regarding Russia has been notably more vigorous, with the Treasury Department emphasizing that no entity supporting Russia's military efforts will benefit from Ukraine's reconstruction. This tougher stance is likely to resonate with Kyiv, which has been pressing for increased pressure on Russia during ongoing negotiations.

**Support for EU Integration**
Concerns arose in Ukraine regarding the potential impact of this agreement on its EU accession goals, particularly fearing preferential treatment for US investors. Nevertheless, the text of the deal stipulates that it aligns with Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU, promising to negotiate adjustments if required as part of that process.

**Reinvestment for Economic Growth**
Perhaps most crucially, the deal stipulates that all profits generated within the first decade will be reinvested back into Ukraine’s economy. This commitment entails that US returns will be deferred, allowing Ukraine to prioritize its recovery and reconstruction efforts during these formative years.

**A New Military Assistance Template**
The agreement emerges as a core element of continued US military support for Ukraine, with acknowledged intentions to provide further military resources in the future, such as air defense systems. However, this raises questions about US military commitment levels under Trump’s administration versus those mandated by Biden.

**Potential Fragility of Commitment**
Despite the economic commitments established in the agreement, there remain no solid security guarantees from the US, a point of concern for both Ukraine and its European allies, as Trump historically has been hesitant to offer unwavering military support.

As the Kremlin has yet to respond to this substantial deal, uncertainty remains regarding its implications on the conflict. The US's evolving strategy might reflect new priorities, yet the underlying fragility of this commitment could pose risks for Ukraine moving forward.