In brief
With extreme weather intensifying around the globe, 2024 is anticipated to become the hottest year on record, according to new projections from the European climate service. This forecast comes just before the UN climate conference in Azerbaijan, where pressing discussions on climate action are expected.
The early part of 2024 has already seen an alarming rise in global temperatures, with averages consistently climbing over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels—the first time this milestone has been reached in a calendar year. This alarming trend is primarily attributed to human-induced climate change and the ongoing influence of the El Niño weather pattern, which began in mid-2023 and subsequently elevated temperatures.With only two months remaining in the year, the chance of reversing the trajectory for 2024 to avoid a new temperature record seems unrealistic. Scientists are predicting an increase of at least 1.55C when compared to pre-industrial benchmarks of 1850-1900. This remarkable rise surpasses the previous record ascribed to 2023, which saw temperatures peak at 1.48C above those historical levels.Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, highlighted the urgency of the situation, noting that the current record serves as a poignant reminder for global leaders attending COP29 of the critical need to curtail further warming. Bargaining will now intensify as nearly 200 nations committed to the Paris Agreement aim to limit climate change impacts long-term.Another key factor influencing this year's unusual temperature highs has been the El Niño phenomenon, characterized by warmer surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Even after the El Niño phase transitioned in April, temperature levels have remained alarmingly high.Although the impending arrival of La Niña—a cooling phase of the weather pattern—could provide some relief next year, uncertainty surrounds its exact impact on global temperatures. Experts remain cautious, asserting that with greenhouse gas emissions continuing to surge, additional record-high temperatures are likely.Climate scientists assert that the consequences of warming, including intensified storms, extreme heatwaves, and severe rainfall, are increasingly visible internationally. Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, stresses that achieving equilibrium in global temperatures by reaching net zero emissions is an essential goal to mitigate the devastating costs associated with climate-related disasters.
