U.S. Population Growth Slower Than Expected Amid Immigration Policies

Fri Jan 09 2026 02:08:54 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

The Congressional Budget Office projects a U.S. population increase of only 15 million over the next 30 years, impacted by stringent immigration policies and an aging demographic.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. population will grow to approximately 364 million by 2056, a significant reduction from previous estimates. Factors influencing this decline include President Donald Trump's immigration restrictions and a noteworthy aging population. Projections reveal that without immigration, the population could start to decrease by 2030. As the number of working-age individuals shrinks, Social Security and Medicare programs may face heightened pressures due to fewer tax contributors.

The U.S. population is projected to grow by only 15 million over the next 30 years, a revision down from earlier estimates. This could be attributed to President Donald Trump's tough immigration policies and an aging population, according to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO's latest estimates indicate that the U.S. population will reach approximately 364 million by 2056, which is 2.2% lower than earlier predictions made last year. Previously released demographic assessments highlighted how Trump's initiatives, including mass deportations and restrictive immigration measures, would facilitate the removal of around 320,000 individuals from the U.S. over the next decade.

Interestingly, the population growth is expected to plateau by 2056 and, without immigration, experts predict a decline starting as early as 2030. William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, emphasized that even if immigration regulations change post-Trump, the effects of the current demographic shifts would still be felt.

With a large segment of the population aging, there will be growing strain on Social Security and Medicare. As demographic trends continue, birth rates remain low, putting further pressure on labor forces and diminishing the tax base needed to support social programs.

The latest CBO numbers reflect Trump's broader immigration strategies aimed at curtailing immigrant numbers, such as a visa ban for specific countries and implementation of stricter tracking by ICE agents. Trump’s recent policies include funding for extended border walls and detention centers to support his immigration enforcement agenda.

The implications of these policies suggest a significantly altered demographic landscape for the U.S., potentially influencing everything from workforce availability to social welfare sustainability.