At the time, Israel's air strike against the Hamas negotiating team in Qatar seemed like yet another escalation that pushed the prospect of peace further away.
The attack on 9 September violated the sovereignty of an American ally and risked expanding the conflict into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy appeared to be in ruins.
Instead it turned out to be a key moment that has led to a deal, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all remaining hostages.
This is a goal that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had sought for nearly two years.
It is just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal remain to be negotiated.
But if this agreement holds, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his diplomatic team.
Trump's unique style and crucial relationships with Israel and the Arab world appear to have contributed to this breakthrough.
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump likes to say that Israel has no better friend, and Netanyahu has described Trump as Israel's greatest ever ally in the White House. And these warm words have been matched by actions.
During his first presidential term, Trump moved the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and abandoned a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the position under international law.
When Israel began its air strikes against Iran in June, Trump ordered US bombers to target the nation's nuclear enrichment facilities with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those public demonstrations of support may have given Trump the room to exert more pressure on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, browbeat Netanyahu in late 2024 into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some hostages.
Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was always more tenuous.
His administration's bear hug strategy held that the US had to embrace Israel publicly in order to allow it to moderate the nation's war conduct in private.
Underneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of support for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the Gaza War.
In the end, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had less importance than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, Israel was not ready to make peace.
Trump's unorthodox manner still has the capacity to shock. He kicked off his second term with an eye-popping suggestion that Palestinians should be required to relocate from Gaza as it was turned into an international oceanfront resort.
Still, Trump's recent agreements signify a major diplomatic achievement that could reshape the dynamics of the Middle East conflict.
