Google has come under scrutiny following its acknowledgment that its earthquake early warning system fell short of expectations during Turkey's catastrophic earthquakes in February 2023. The company admitted that up to 10 million residents within 98 miles of the quake's epicenter missed out on its highest level alert, which could have provided them with up to 35 seconds of vital warning to seek safety. Instead, only 469 "Take Action" alerts were dispatched for the initial 7.8 magnitude quake.
In a statement to the BBC, Google clarified that around half a million users received a less urgent warning meant for "light shaking," which does not draw attention in a life-threatening scenario. The company's earlier claims that their system had "performed well" have now been called into question.
Triggered by shaking detected across the Android device network, Google’s Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system aims to deliver timely warnings during seismic events. The app, designed for 70% of Turkey’s mobile users, failed to provide alerts when they were needed most, with many victims unknowingly remaining in bed as buildings collapsed around them.
Over 55,000 lives were lost due to the earthquakes, which hit South East Turkey on February 6. The AEA, operational at the time, miscalculated the severity of the quakes. Google spokespersons assert that the company is continually refining the system based on feedback from past earthquakes.
The AEA operates by measuring ground shaking through a network of Android devices, allowing it to issue warnings that leverage the slow-moving nature of seismic waves. The system generates a “Take Action” alert that overrides silent modes on devices, while the less urgent “Be Aware” alert does not.
The importance of the more serious warning was underscored by the timing of the first earthquake, which struck just after 4 AM, when many users were asleep. Research conducted after the disaster showed that no one in the affected areas reported having received a Take Action alert.
Recent studies published by Google researchers highlighted the technical limitations that contributed to the system's shortcomings, with initial estimations of the quake’s size significantly below the actual magnitude. Following a reassessment, Google's updated algorithms simulated the initial quake conditions, successfully generating 10 million high-priority alerts and issuing 67 million Be Aware notifications to users in more distant regions.
Experts have expressed concern regarding the transparency and efficiency of the alert systems, suggesting that reliance on untested technologies might be misplaced. Google emphasizes that their system is meant to complement national warning systems rather than replace them. Nonetheless, some experts advocate for greater clarity surrounding the performance and reliability of such tech-driven solutions.
As communities continue to heal from the earthquakes, the focus on seismic warning technology remains critical. Google's AEA has been implemented in 98 countries since, and the company is yet to disclose how the system performed in other seismic events.
