Betting Odds Surging as Papal Conclave Approaches

With Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the frontrunner, bettors are grappling with the intricate dynamics behind the secretive election process.

As the papal conclave approaches, online betting sites are witnessing an unprecedented surge in wagers amid the anticipation of who will succeed Pope Francis. This upcoming conclave, starting Wednesday, marks the first time major online prediction markets have turned their attention to the complex and historically rich process of selecting a new pope.

Leading the betting odds is Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy, despite recent medical rumors that the Vatican has since brushed aside. Following him in popularity are Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi from Italy, according to platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

This betting phenomenon harks back to 1503, where records show that wagering on papal elections has been a tradition for centuries. However, predicting such an event remains a daunting task, as market experts acknowledge. The complexity and unpredictability of decision-making in the conclave, which features roughly 133 cardinal electors sworn to secrecy, lead to a volatile and enigmatic atmosphere.

Vatican expert Franca Giansoldati pointed out that while crowdsourced predictions can be insightful, they cannot fully navigate the opaque and clandestine processes behind the conclave. Economist Rajiv Sethi echoes this sentiment, noting that the unpredictable nature of conclave politics makes it a far less discernible event than a political election, where voters analyze myriad information sources.

History illustrates the challenges: in the 2013 conclave, Cardinal Angelo Scola was seen as the frontrunner, yet Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio emerged unexpectedly as Pope Francis. This outcome serves as a crucial reminder that the dynamics can shift rapidly, often away from public scrutiny.

The stakes are high this time as the cardinals gather—some for the first time. Political maneuverings among cardinals are often shrouded in secrecy, complicating predictions even further. Stefano Maria Paci, a veteran Vatican analyst, remarked on the unpredictable nature of the conclave, asserting, “I am convinced this is the hardest vote on the planet to forecast.”

Despite the inherent uncertainties, bettors remain undeterred. By Wednesday afternoon, wagers on the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms had already exceeded $27 million—comparable to the betting figures for the Super Bowl. This evolving landscape of betting reflects not just the religious significance of the papal election but also the broader societal interest in forecasting high-stakes political outcomes.