As India's fertility rates continue to decline, southern states are advocating for higher birth rates to mitigate the effects of an ageing population. However, demographic experts warn that simply increasing the birth rate may not address the complexities of the country's socio-economic landscape and the challenges of an ageing populace.
India's Population Dilemma: Why More Children Might Not Solve Its Future Problems
India's Population Dilemma: Why More Children Might Not Solve Its Future Problems
Amidst its status as the world's most populous nation with 1.45 billion people, India is confronting a demographic crisis that raises questions about the need for even more children.
Last year marked a significant moment in history as India nudged past China to claim the title of the world's most populous country, with UN estimates putting its population at around 1.45 billion. Despite this staggering figure, discussions regarding increasing birth rates are gaining traction, particularly in southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Government officials in Andhra Pradesh are considering methods to incentivize higher fertility rates due to concerns regarding low birth rates and an ageing populace. The state has recently abolished its "two-child policy" for local elections, and neighboring Telangana is reportedly contemplating similar actions. Tamil Nadu, facing similar demographic pressures, is also vocal about the need for more children.
India's rapid decline in fertility rates, which fell from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just two today, has led to below-replacement-level birth rates in 17 out of 29 states. The southern states of India, which have experienced this demographic transition much earlier than their northern counterparts, now exhibit total fertility rates below 1.6 – comparable to various European nations. Yet, these regions fear that their responsible population control policies, which have positioned them as better economic players, may result in penalties through reduced parliamentary representation and federal funding in the upcoming 2026 delimitation.
Demographers project that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain additional parliamentary seats at the expense of economically vibrant southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. This reshaping of electoral representation comes as concerns rise about the sustainability of healthcare and community systems given the accelerated ageing phenomenon in India, anticipated to double the elderly population at a rate incomparable to other nations.
As fertility rates decline faster than socio-economic advancements can catch up, a looming crisis emerges, wherein states are left grappling with providing pensions for an ageing populace. A significant percentage of elderly Indians belong to the poorest wealth quintile, indicating that financial capacity to care for an ageing population is still a pressing concern.
The calls for increased childbearing from influential figures within India's ruling party, particularly from the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, highlight a fear rooted in demographic science that societies could face peril if their growth falls below a critical threshold. However, experts like Tim Dyson point out that persistently low fertility rates could lead to not just a manageable decline but an "unmanageable population decline" with vast socio-economic repercussions.
As countries like South Korea and Greece confront similar challenges with plummeting birth rates, the solution for India may not merely lie in encouraging larger families. Instead, addressing the ageing population through policies promoting healthy aging, extending productive working years, and effectively leveraging its demographic dividend presents a more realistic path forward. Analysts believe there's a narrow opportunity until 2047 for India to capitalize on its working-age population, emphasizing the need for strategic planning to cope with its evolving demographic landscape.
