The Limits of the ‘Axis’ of Authoritarianism: China and Russia’s Reluctance to Aid Iran

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the anticipated alliance between authoritarian nations, particularly Iran, Russia, and China, seems less robust than initially believed. Their limited response to Iran’s needs during conflict with Israel highlights the fractures in this supposed "axis" of nations.

In the face of increasing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, the anticipated support from Russia and China for Iran has not materialized as some expected. Despite the previous collaboration among these authoritarian states, notably seen in Russia's war against Ukraine alongside Iranian support through drone and missile exports, the outbreak of conflict in Israel has shown the fragility of their alliance.

U.S. and British officials naively labeled the coalition between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a new "axis" of authoritarianism, believing it bound together by a shared disdain for the United States and its allies. However, when critical moments arose—namely the recent Israeli offensives or U.S. bombardments of Iranian nuclear facilities—neither Russia nor China extended any substantial military support to Iran.

Alexander Gabuev, a noted authority from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, remarked on the situation: "The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue." This sentiment underscores a significant realization—that these states prioritize their individual interests over collective support, revealing the limitations of any solidified axis of nations.

The absence of a unified front speaks volumes about the differing strategies and objectives among these countries. "Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others," Gabuev concluded, emphasizing the divergence in values and institutions compared to the cohesive alliances seen among U.S. allies. Thus, as the conflict evolves, it becomes increasingly clear that while rhetoric may suggest solidarity, political realities often dictate otherwise.