Asteroid 2024 YR4 Raises Concerns as Impact Risk Surpasses Previous Threats

With a projected impact probability of 3.1% on December 22, 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 has emerged as a major concern for scientists, surpassing the earlier fears surrounding asteroid Apophis.

Astronomers have announced a significant increase in the threat posed by an asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which has now been classified as the most likely candidate for impacting Earth. Detected in December, this space rock measures between 130 to 300 feet in length and is scheduled to make a very close flyby of our planet in 2032. Current calculations suggest a 3.1 percent chance of collision on December 22 of that year, a figure that eclipses the risk once associated with asteroid Apophis, which was discovered back in 2004 with an initial impact probability of 2.7 percent for 2029.

Despite being considerably smaller than Apophis, asteroid 2024 YR4 could still inflict considerable damage if it were to collide with Earth, as the extent of destruction would largely depend on its entry angle into the atmosphere. While a direct hit wouldn’t obliterate a country, it could potentially wreak havoc on a city—especially concerning locations such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai, which are situated near possible impact zones. Fortunately, much of the asteroid's predicted path crosses vast ocean areas.

The kinetic energy associated with an asteroid’s mass is critical when assessing its potential impact. Given that asteroids typically travel at similar speeds—around 38,000 miles per hour—the mass of 2024 YR4 will ultimately determine the possible destruction it could cause. However, limited observations mean that scientists can only provide a range of mass estimations. Mark Boslough, a physicist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, acknowledged the uncertainty regarding the asteroid's composition and density, which makes it challenging to calculate the energy it would unleash upon striking Earth's surface or detonating in the atmosphere.