Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - “within two weeks or so” - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
“I don't want to have a wasted meeting,” President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. “I don't want to have a waste of time, so I'll see what happens.”
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request. “We have to get Russia done,” he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term in office, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president is actually more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
In contrast, the Ukraine conflict lacks such leverage. Over the past nine months, Trump has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. However, he is aware that escalating tensions could destabilize the global economy.
Meanwhile, he has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilize the entire region.
Trump often touts his ability to negotiate deals, but in this instance, his engagements with both Putin and Zelensky have not progressed toward any resolution of the conflict.
Putin may be strategically leveraging Trump's desire for a deal, using the prospect of in-person meetings to influence outcomes. Trump's varying proposals for Ukraine, including the sending of missiles to Kyiv, reflect a confused diplomatic strategy.
Ultimately, the ongoing tensions reveal the complexities and limitations of Trump's diplomatic efforts, especially when neither party is willing or able to compromise for peace.
