US President Donald Trump was swift to declare victory after the second crew member of an F-15 downed over Iran was recovered, claiming on Sunday that the successful rescue proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority.
Observers, however, paint a more complicated picture of what this means for the US in Iran.
While the mission was successful, the events of the last few days—during which two aircraft were downed and at least one helicopter hit by gunfire—highlight that threats to US aircraft and personnel remain.
Several Washington sources who spoke to the BBC speculated that the loss of aircraft and the complexity of the operation to recover the pilots could potentially dissuade Trump from any ground operation to take Kharg Island and sites in the Persian Gulf, or to seize highly enriched uranium in Iran.
These operations could be complicated and risk exposing US forces to remaining Iranian capabilities, including difficult-to-find man-portable air defense systems, known as Manpads, which are shoulder-launched weapons most effective against low-flying aircraft.
On the other hand, the fact that US troops were able to enter a contested environment and set up a forward airfield and refueling point under the nose of the Iranians—then hold it for hours while two stuck aircraft were destroyed and replacements sent—might embolden him. It could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran stands a good chance of success.
Trump has sent mixed messages about the path forward, telling reporters in a series of phone calls that he believes a deal with Iran could be just around the corner. If that fails, he has said repeatedly on Truth Social that the clock is ticking on a self-imposed deadline to begin striking Iranian power plants and bridges, leaving Iran living in hell. Trump also hinted at potentially moving to seize Iran's oil, without providing further details.
An expanded campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent an escalation. Trump's comments over the weekend contrast with others made last week, where he suggested that the US already created conditions for other countries to engage in the Strait. He appeared to shift course, hoping that the threat of devastating attacks on Iranian targets could prompt Tehran’s leadership to negotiate.
