After two years of war, there is a chance of a deal that will end the killing and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli hostages, living and dead, to their families. It is an opportunity, but it is not certain that it will be seized by Hamas and Israel.

The 7 October attacks killed around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, and 251 were taken hostage. The Israelis estimate that 20 hostages are still alive and they want the return of the bodies of 28 others. Israel's devastating military response has destroyed most of Gaza and killed more than 66,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians and including more than 18,000 children. The figures come from the health ministry that is part of the remains of the Hamas administration.

Israelis and Palestinians both want the war to end. Israelis are war-weary, and polls show a majority want a deal that returns the hostages and ends the war. More than two million Palestinians in Gaza are in a humanitarian catastrophe, caught between the firepower of the IDF and hunger, along with a man-made famine due to Israel's restrictions on aid.

The version of Hamas that was able to attack Israel with devastating force has long since been broken as a coherent military organization. It has become an urban guerrilla force mounting an insurgency against the IDF. Hamas is looking for a way to survive while agreeing to give up power to Palestinian technocrats. They want to keep enough firepower to defend against Palestinians looking for revenge for nearly two decades of brutal rule.

For Israel, the focus is on achieving a 'total victory' and returning hostages. The negotiations are indirect, mediated by Egyptian and Qatari officials. The stakes are high in Sharm el-Sheikh as the basis of the talks is Donald Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan.

The path forward is complex and fraught with obstacles, as both sides face internal pressures that may resist a ceasefire. As the conflict continues, the world watches closely, hoping for a resolution that has eluded both parties for decades. Potential negotiations may give them the opportunity to claim some form of victory while trying to end violence and humanitarian suffering.