Oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since before the Iran war, following the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical shipping passage for oil and gas.
Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel on the day before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, before climbing to $72.63, the lowest level since that time.
The sharp decline in oil prices began after the United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June, which set out a 60‑day period for negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme and other measures to end the conflict, and led to a partial lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reports that the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz rose significantly since the MOU was signed, with crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertiliser and other cargoes moving through the waterway.
The United States Navy has provided guidance to commercial vessels to navigate a southern route that is free of mines and other obstructions, and the “communication line” established by the two sides aims to prevent misunderstandings and ensure safe passage for commercial ships.
Despite the surge in traffic, the count of vessels crossing the strait remains below pre‑war levels, which had seen more than 100 ships a day.
Fuel prices at the pump rose sharply with the start of the Iran war, and there is now a focus on how quickly they will fall again.
The average price of regular gasoline in the United States has dropped to around $3.93 a gallon, after reaching $4.00 in April – the highest since 2022 – yet it remains well above pre‑war levels.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into major energy companies, accusing Shell, ExxonMobil and others of “gouging” drivers by not lowering fuel prices even as oil costs fell.
Trump told reporters that “oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be.”
The American Petroleum Institute has noted that fuel prices do not move in lockstep with crude oil, and the UK competition watchdog has found no widespread evidence of unfair petrol price hikes since the Iran war.
