Vote day in Brazil: Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazilians have begun voting in a general election that pits an incumbent left‑wing leader against a son of the country’s controversial former president. Incumbent Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has served three terms, will be challenged by 11 other candidates – the most prominent of whom is right‑winger Flávio Bolsonaro.
In the last election four years ago, Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro, the father. That victory was followed by protests and a coup attempt that cast a long shadow over subsequent politics – a shadow that still haunts this election.
What you need to know.
The man not on the ballot
Jair Bolsonaro will not run in 2026. The former army captain is serving a 27‑year sentence for plotting a coup and is under house arrest. Despite his legal restrictions, deep‑fake videos of him endorsing his son’s campaign are circulating, keeping his influence alive.
What do the polls say?
Only Lula and Flávio reach double‑digit support. Both hover around 40 % of the vote, with Lula slightly ahead. The remaining candidates trail at 4 % or less. No one has crossed the 50 % threshold, so a run‑off on 25 October is expected unless an outright winner emerges.
Approximately 9 % of voters are still undecided or plan to spoil or not vote, leaving room for a surprise outcome.
What does Lula stand for?
Lula, the 80‑year‑old Workers’ Party leader, has a record of reducing poverty through programmes like Bolsa Família. However, his tenure has also been marred by corruption allegations and a controversial move to open offshore oil drilling near the Amazon, which climate activists criticize. He insists the oil revenue will eventually fund Brazil’s shift to clean energy.
His recent foreign policy has also drawn ire from the United States, as he rebukes the so‑called “Donroe doctrine” and asserts Brazil’s independence.
What is Bolsonaro promising?
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has campaigned on a tough‑on‑crime platform, advocating longer sentences and more lenient gun laws. He targets evangelical voters, farmers and supporters of his father. The senator has also linked to the US’s “Shield of the Americas” anti‑crime alliance. His campaign faces corruption accusations tied to a cryptocurrency‑banking scandal involving a banker named Daniel Vorcaro.
Main issues worrying voters
Crime and security were once the top concerns, but recent allegations of corruption involving banker Daniel Vorcaro have tilted voter priorities toward scandals. Allegations link the senator to the funding of a biopic about Jair Bolsonaro, drawing scrutiny from law enforcement. Additionally, connections between Vorcaro and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes – who oversaw Jair’s trial and has presided over multiple court rulings – have also gained attention. Lula has tried to distance himself from Moraes, while Flávio uses the judge’s alleged misconduct to rally his base.
