CBO Forecasts Worsening Federal Deficits and Rising National Debt

Wed Feb 11 2026 22:54:51 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

The Congressional Budget Office's latest 10-year outlook suggests a troubling increase in federal deficits as a result of heightened spending on essential programs, raising concerns for the economy.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a grim 10-year fiscal outlook indicating that rising spending, particularly on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service, will contribute to escalating federal deficits and national debt. The projected deficit for 2026 has increased by $100 billion, with total deficits from 2026 to 2035 estimated to rise by $1.4 trillion. The report warns that the growing debt could hinder essential government spending on infrastructure and education, while inflation rates are not expected to stabilize until 2030. Experts emphasize the urgent need for policymakers to address these challenges before choices become more difficult.

WASHINGTON (RTW News) — The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a challenging 10-year economic forecast, revealing an alarming rise in federal deficits and national debt primarily due to increased expenditures on pivotal programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and debt servicing. This latest projection marks a slight downturn compared to the analysis from a year ago, suggesting worsening fiscal conditions.

Recent developments impacting the budgetary outlook include significant legislation from the Republicans, increased tariffs, and immigration policies from the previous administration aimed at reducing undocumented immigration. These factors have played a substantial role in escalating the projected 2026 deficit by $100 billion, with overall deficits between 2026 and 2035 forecasted to be $1.4 trillion higher. The CBO anticipates that the public debt will surge from 101% of GDP to 120%, breaking records previously set in U.S. history.

Interestingly, the impact of higher tariffs is acknowledged by the CBO, which indicates they will help somewhat by increasing federal revenues by $3 trillion, although this economic strategy is also predicted to push inflation rates higher between 2026 and 2029.

Rising debt is of critical importance as it undermines government expenditure on crucial infrastructure such as roads and education, key components for future economic growth. Projections also highlight that inflation is not expected to align with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate until 2030, suggesting ongoing economic instability.

Jonathan Burks, from the Bipartisan Policy Center, remarked on the unprecedented nature of such large deficits in a growing economy, underlining the importance of immediate corrective measures from lawmakers. Together, he advocates for collaborative efforts to explore options for revenue enhancement, spending reductions, and managing the growth of major expenses that drive deficits.

Currently, Congressional measures addressing federal debt primarily lean towards targeted spending caps and temporary debt limit suspensions, often coinciding with new spending initiatives that keep deficits elevated. In addition, President Trump initiated a Department of Government Efficiency during his second term, aiming to balance the budget by identifying and eliminating waste; however, actual cuts have been minimal according to analysts.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, views the CBO’s predictions as a crucial alert to U.S. leaders regarding unsustainable fiscal trajectories. He notes the electorate's heightened awareness of the link between rising debt and personal financial stability, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing debt as part of upcoming electoral discussions.