As Election Day nears, recent Times/Siena polls indicate a slim lead for Harris in key states while Trump maintains strength among white voters. The election dynamics highlight significant gender and demographic divides impacting voter decisions.
Harris and Trump Neck and Neck as Election Day Approaches
Harris and Trump Neck and Neck as Election Day Approaches
With just one day to go until the election, final polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in tight races across several battleground states.
As the countdown to Election Day continues, the latest Times/Siena polling results reveal a fiercely competitive landscape in several pivotal states. Kamala Harris holds a slight edge in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump commands a lead in Arizona. Both candidates find themselves in a tight battle in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with margins so narrow that they fall within the sampling error range—signifying no clear frontrunner.
Traditionally, final polls suggest a more definitive favorite, even if the trends shift before voting concludes, according to Nate Cohn, the Times' chief political analyst. However, this election cycle defies those norms. The preceding round of battleground polls reflects little change overall; however, the disparity between Northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds has considerably diminished. Harris has seen improved support among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, while Trump has strengthened his appeal among white voters without higher education degrees.
A compelling gender divide is also noteworthy, with Trump gaining the support of men in battleground states by 16 percentage points, paralleled by Harris's commanding lead among women voters. Abortion has emerged as the paramount issue influencing women’s voting choices, marking a significant shift in priorities this election.
In response to reader inquiries, national reporter Campbell Robertson provided insights into why Pennsylvania remains a key swing state. The demographic makeup is complex, with two major Democratic strongholds, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, flanked by liberal suburbs and expansive rural regions. Historically a hub for industry and union labor, these areas have shifted rightward in recent decades due to economic decline. A growing number of college-educated adults and nonwhite voters are reshaping the demographic landscape, yet the majority continues to be comprised of white individuals without a college education, solidifying Trump’s base.
