German Intelligence Agency Concludes Lab Leak Likely Origin of Covid-19

Reports indicate that Germany's foreign intelligence service, BND, assessed a high probability that the coronavirus leaked from a lab based on 2020 findings. This has reignited discussions around the lab leak theory, which contrasts with previous conclusions drawn by the WHO.

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, reportedly believed there was an 80-90% likelihood that the coronavirus emerged due to an accidental leak from a laboratory in China, according to revelations from two German newspapers. The documents suggested that in 2020, the BND conducted an assessment of the origins of Covid-19 dubbed Project Saaremaa, which indicated that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had engaged in experiments that modified viruses to enhance their transmissibility to humans.

Despite the lack of public disclosure until now, the German intelligence assessment pointed to potential safety regulation breaches within the lab. China has firmly denied the lab-leak theory, stating that the investigation into the origins of Covid-19 is a scientific matter that should be resolved by experts. Chinese authorities reference a World Health Organization (WHO) investigation that deemed the lab-leak hypothesis "extremely unlikely."

The publication of BND's assessment comes at a time when the lab-leak theory, previously dismissed by many in the scientific community, is gaining traction among some intelligence agencies. Notably, in January, the US CIA also suggested that a lab-related origin for the pandemic is now considered more plausible based on evolving reporting.

Though the BND report has not yet been officially commented on by the German government, it has been shared with the CIA as recent as autumn 2022. The revelations coincide with ongoing discussions about the controversial origins of the virus, which initially appeared to strongly support the notion of a natural origin - specifically, a transmission from bats via intermediary species to humans.

The WHO’s investigation in early 2021 found minimal support for the lab-leak theory following a 12-day exploratory mission in Wuhan, where scientists visited relevant laboratories and conducted extensive discussions. However, subsequent critiques emerged from some researchers who felt the lab-leak hypothesis was insufficiently examined in the larger report.

As scientists continue to grapple with the origins of Covid-19, many are concerned that a definitive intermediary species has yet to be identified, raising questions about the credibility of the natural origin narrative.