Russia Braces for Potential Fallout from Iran-Israel Conflict

Wed Jun 18 2025 18:45:12 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)
Russia Braces for Potential Fallout from Iran-Israel Conflict

As tensions rise in the Middle East, Moscow faces fears of losing key allies amid Iran-Israel hostilities.


Amidst Israel's Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials express concern while noting potential benefits for Russia's economy. However, experts warn the prolonged conflict could have dire consequences for Moscow as it grapples with its diminishing influence in the region, particularly after the loss of Bashar al-Assad as an ally.

With President Putin attending the annual International Economic Forum, the Kremlin remains watchful of geopolitical developments that may further impact its position on the global stage.



As Israel embarks on its military operation dubbed Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials are voicing alarm over the escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Simultaneously, they are quick to highlight possible advantages for Russia, including a potential rise in global oil prices and a diversion of international scrutiny from its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Headlines in prominent Russian media, such as “Kyiv has been forgotten,” reflect this dual perspective.

Yet, the Russian political landscape remains fraught with tension as experts caution that Moscow stands to suffer significant setbacks from the unfolding situation. Andrei Kortunov, a political scientist writing for Kommersant, indicates that the sustained escalation poses grave risks, particularly as Russia struggles to protect its strategic partnership with Iran—an alliance established just months prior.

While Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously emphasized the importance of security cooperation between the two nations, the current conflict underscores that Moscow's commitments are neither military in nature nor binding, leaving Russia reluctant to extend military aid to Tehran.

Russia has already diminished its influence with the loss of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian leader who sought exile in Moscow after his regime was challenged last December. With regime change becoming a possibility in Iran, Russian concerns escalate over losing another crucial partner in the Middle East.

As geopolitical dynamics shift, the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper notes that profound changes in global politics could directly impact Russia's position. This week, President Putin is engaged in the annual International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, aiming to showcase that international isolation due to the war in Ukraine is unfounded. However, the forum's relevance has waned, as major corporate leaders from the West have largely steered clear since the onset of the war.

While anticipated discussions on the Middle East and Ukraine are on the agenda, the Kremlin's ability to navigate these tumultuous waters remains uncertain, amidst growing international scrutiny and internal challenges in maintaining alliances.

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