Invisible Losses: Russia's Hidden Death Toll in the Ukraine War

A comprehensive analysis of the ongoing conflict reveals the staggering yet invisible toll on Russia's military personnel, including forcibly mobilized civilians and criminals coerced into service.

As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year, the human cost for Russian forces mounts, with reports indicating that more than 95,000 soldiers have perished in combat. This figure excludes those serving in militias from the self-proclaimed Donbas republics, where fatalities are estimated between 21,000 and 23,500. The data, compiled by BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteer groups, reflects ongoing efforts to document the significant yet often unnoticed losses in the war, which began in earnest with Russia's invasion in February 2022.

Among the countless individual stories of loss is that of Daniil Dudnikov, a 21-year-old history student at Donetsk National University who was conscripted at the war's onset. After being deployed to the Kharkiv region shortly after mobilization, he went missing in action, with reports later confirming his death. Daniil's experience echoes that of many young men from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, regions heavily impacted by the conflict due to their ties to Russian-backed separatists.

Unfortunately, many of these conscripts have been poorly trained and inadequately equipped, forcing them into high-risk situations. Evidence suggests that the majority of deaths occurred during the war's initial year, a period in which losses among Donbas militia forces rivaled those of the official Russian military.

A significant portion of Russian military losses consists of prisoners recruited from jails who were promised leniency in their sentences in exchange for service. Individuals like Ildus Sadykov exemplify this phenomenon; he, too, received assurances that he would not be sent to the frontlines. However, he met a tragic fate in combat, highlighting the grim reality faced by those with criminal backgrounds who were discharged into the battlefield.

Experts have observed that the impact of these losses disproportionately affects communities with fewer resources, particularly small towns where awareness of the casualties is much higher. As Gulnaz Sharafutdinova from King's College London explains, the privileged social segments of Russia are largely shielded from the conflict's harsh realities.

Public perception of the war remains challenging to gauge, as many Russians express reservations about openly discussing their views due to fear of retribution. Current estimates indicate that only 30% of Russians have direct connections to those fighting or killed in the conflict, compared to nearly 80% of Ukrainians who report similar ties.

As the actual death toll remains shrouded in uncertainty, military analysts suggest that current figures represent only a fraction of reality, with the true number of Russian fatalities potentially as high as 211,169 when including losses from Donetsk and Luhansk forces. Official reports from Russia last cited military deaths in September 2022, with numbers significantly lower than estimates from independent analyses.

As the conflict continues, with a renewed focus on potential peace negotiations from the U.S. administration, monitoring of cemeteries and memorials remains crucial to understanding the full scope of the human tragedy unfolding in this protracted war.