Uncertainty Surrounds Potential Putin-Zelensky Summit Locations

Discussions of a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin stall amid diverging positions and conflicting preconditions, with various locations such as Budapest, Istanbul, and Geneva being considered for the summit. Recent statements from both leaders suggest that they remain far apart on key issues, complicating the possibility of meaningful negotiations.

The possibility of a summit between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia's President Vladimir Putin has generated speculation regarding potential venues, even as diplomatic overtures face significant hurdles. Just days after former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the meeting occurring soon, various cities including Geneva, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul have come under consideration.

After a lengthy absence of face-to-face dialogue, with the last meeting occurring in 2019, hopes for the summit have fluctuated. Trump indicated that arrangements were underway, suggesting that Putin had tentatively agreed to meet, a claim somewhat disputed by Kremlin spokesperson Yuri Ushakov, who described their conversation regarding "raising the level of representatives" without confirming a direct agreement.

The timeframe for the potential summit has also been cited, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggesting it could happen in the coming weeks. However, he raised doubts on Putin's willingness to attend, hinting that further persuasion might be needed.

Despite indications from Moscow of openness to talks, the conditions Russia is reportedly attaching to a meeting appear to be non-starters for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has indicated that Putin would be open to discussions if certain "issues" were resolved beforehand; however, this vagueness has historically stymied progress in prior negotiations.

Additionally, proposed security guarantees for Ukraine, interpreted through Russia’s lens, may further complicate matters. Initial reports claimed Russia would accept security frameworks for Ukraine, though these now seem heavily laced with terms that could reinforce Moscow's influence while compromising Ukraine's defense against potential aggression.

Zelensky has articulated that any summit would necessitate prior agreements on security assurances, ideally backed by Western allies, a precondition unlikely to gain Kremlin approval as it effectively sidelines Russia's influence.

With speculative venues circulating, Budapest has emerged as a contender, though Zelensky has expressed concerns regarding Hungary’s neutrality. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ties with Putin disrupt the perception of Budapest as a neutral ground, prompting leaders like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to suggest looking elsewhere, emphasizing the historical context of a 1994 summit that faltered.

Other potential hosting sites like Switzerland, known for its tradition of mediating peace dialogues, and Austria—both of which have indicated they would provide diplomatic immunity to Putin—are seen as suitable alternatives. Additionally, Turkey has previously hosted preliminary talks and may serve as a location for future discussions if diplomatic efforts intensify.

Despite these possibilities, the ongoing war in Ukraine shows no sign of resolution as recent strikes have escalated tensions further. Zelensky emphasized the need for pressure to encourage genuine negotiation efforts. The complexities surrounding the proposed summit underscore the deep-rooted divisions and lack of readiness from both sides to compromise as hostilities continue unabated.