The president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has warned that her country's independence and European future are in danger after police arrested dozens of people accused of involvement in a plot to stoke violent disorder, allegedly backed by Russia.

Just days before Sunday’s pivotal parliamentary elections, Moldovan police stated they had confiscated weapons and explosives in raids across the country. They allege some of the 74 detainees had travelled to Serbia for training by Russian instructors, including with firearms.

Addressing the nation, President Sandu accused the Kremlin of 'pouring hundreds of millions of euros' into Moldova in an attempt to foment violence and spread disinformation and fear.

'The Kremlin believes that we are all for sale. That we are too small to resist. That we are not a country, only a territory,' the president declared, pointing to Russian involvement at the highest level. 'But Moldova is our home. And our home is not for sale.'

Pro-Russian parties have accused Sandu of trying to intimidate them and sway the vote. Sandu called on supporters to come out and cast their ballots on Sunday in an election in which pro-Russian forces are set to challenge the pro-EU status quo, as the majority held by Sandu's own Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is seen at risk.

For her, a high turnout – especially among the diaspora – is key. Moldova declared its independence as the USSR fell apart over 30 years ago, but it has a significant Russian-speaking population. The breakaway region of Transnistria, propped up by Moscow, is still home to a contingent of Russian troops.

For years, Moscow's influence has lingered in Moldovan politics. However, under President Sandu, the country has launched talks to join the EU and held a referendum in which voters chose to enshrine the goal of accession into their constitution.

That ballot narrowly won with only 50.4%, against evidence of Russian meddling including cash being smuggled into the country to buy votes.

It is thought that only a small percentage of the money being sent is intercepted – 10 to 15% of the total – and in Moldova, with its small population, every ballot counts. 'With 200,000 votes, it’s possible to change everything: it’s enough to look at the EU referendum in October, which was decided by such a small margin,' warns Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund in Bucharest.

'The fines for selling your vote are significant, but there are still people willing to do it.'

Russia's hybrid attacks present a large part of the issue for Sandu's PAS, but there are additional problems. Opponents accuse the government of insufficient action against corruption, leading voters in Russian-speaking regions like Gagauzia to believe Moldova should collaborate with Moscow instead of antagonizing it.

President Sandu and her supporters strongly disagree. In 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, she made a definitive pivot towards Europe, viewing it as the only guarantor of her country’s security and sovereignty.

The latest police raids indicate that Moscow is not letting up. Separately, Bloomberg reported documents outlining extensive Russian plans to create unrest and distort the election.

Russia's SVR intelligence service has countered with a statement mirroring Moldova's claims, alleging that European nations are plotting 'blatant falsification' of the election results to incite protests.

They have also warned of potential EU "armed incursions" into Moldova, falsely asserting that the EU is deploying troops there.

'This is Russia openly planning for Plan B,' warns Sergiu Panainte. 'If PAS does secure a majority, it means they [Russia] will resort to violence and staged attacks. This is the option they are preparing for.'\