He promised total victory for Israel, but standing next to Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, it was Benjamin Netanyahu who looked defeated.
Israel's prime minister was saying all the right things about the peace deal he had just agreed to, but he seemed deflated, his voice hoarse and his energy dimmed, as he praised Trump as the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.
This friendship could cost him his government.
Netanyahu's far-right allies have threatened to leave – and possibly collapse – his government if he makes too many concessions in ending the war. Coalition partners like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have made little secret of their desire to annex Gaza, drive out Palestinians and re-establish Jewish settlements there.
They – and Netanyahu – have been implacably opposed to any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, and any pathway to a Palestinian State. The deal Netanyahu has now agreed to outlines both, though with heavy caveats.
Trump knows that by pushing Netanyahu into this deal, he is asking him to risk his government. In return, he is dangling the prospect of a historic legacy – a new, more peaceful future for the region, and new ties between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
Before Netanyahu left for Washington, signs indicated he knew this choice was looming. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, mentioned he was considering pardoning Netanyahu in his ongoing corruption trials, a factor that has created pressure for Netanyahu to cling to power.
The political exit being offered to him now – a regional legacy that may require sacrificing his government – does not seem to have fully convinced him. He quickly rebutted claims that he agreed to a Palestinian state, stating, Absolutely not. It's not even written in the agreement, and emphasized Israel's intent to forcibly resist a Palestinian state.
Despite his adamant stance, reports suggest that Israel's cabinet will vote only on exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, raising questions about Netanyahu's political strategy moving forward.
The continuation of war hangs in the balance, with Netanyahu emphasizing that Israel retains the right to finish the job if Hamas does not comply with the agreement. This uncomfortable negotiation presents a significant challenge for Netanyahu, already recognized as a master of political maneuvering.
Historically, Netanyahu has shifted his position to buy time, and many believe he never intended to negotiate an end to the war but to secure Hamas’s surrender on Israeli terms. However, this time, the stakes involved in rejecting the deal are considerably high.
For the first time since the conflict began, it appears that avoiding this deal could result in worse consequences for Netanyahu than agreeing to it. This scenario begs the question: if Trump pressured him, why didn't President Biden exert similar influence earlier, allowing time for more lives to be saved?
