Thailand's Constitutional Court strikes again, removing yet another prime minister from office.
The country's notoriously interventionist panel of nine appointed judges has ruled that Paetongtarn Shinawatra violated ethical standards in a phone call she had in June with veteran Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which he then leaked.
In the conversation, Paetongtarn was conciliatory towards Hun Sen over their countries' border dispute and criticized one of her own army commanders. She defended her discussion, claiming it was an attempt at a diplomatic breakthrough with Hun Sen, a long-time acquaintance of her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and stated the conversation should have remained confidential.
The leak was damaging and deeply embarrassing for her and her Pheu Thai party. It sparked calls for her resignation, especially after her biggest coalition partner exited the government, leaving her with a slim majority.
In July, seven out of the nine judges on the court voted to suspend Paetongtarn—a margin suggesting she would follow the same fate as her four predecessors. Thus, the decision made on Friday was not surprising.
Paetongtarn is the fifth Thai prime minister to be removed by this court, all from administrations backed by her father. This has fostered a widespread belief in Thailand that the judiciary often rules against those seen as threats by conservative, royalist forces.
The court has also banned 112 political parties, many small but including two previous versions of Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party and the reformist Move Forward, which won the last election in 2023.
In few other countries is political life so rigorously policed by the judiciary.
In this case, it was the leaked phone conversation that sealed Paetongtarn's fate.
Hun Sen reacted angrily to a comment by Paetongtarn calling the Cambodian leadership's use of social media to advocate positions unprofessional. He described it as an unprecedented insult, prompting him to expose the truth. Consequently, this decision ignited a political crisis in Thailand, worsening tensions over their border, which recently erupted into a brief war causing over 40 fatalities.
The Thai constitution requires members of parliament to select a new prime minister from a very limited list. Each party had to name three candidates before the last election, and after the court's dismissal of Srettha Thavisin last year, Pheu Thai has now utilized two candidates. Their remaining candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, is a former minister but is relatively unknown to the public and in poor health.
The other option, Anutin Charnvirakul, from the former coalition party Bhumjaithai, left the coalition ostensibly over the leaked phone call, and now relationships between the two parties are strained. Anutin would need to depend on Pheu Thai, which holds significantly more seats, to form a government—an arrangement unlikely to produce stability.
The largest party in parliament, The People's Party, comprising 143 MPs formerly from the now-dissolved Move Forward, has vowed to remain in opposition until a new election occurs. However, Pheu Thai is reluctant for a new election and has struggled to fulfill its commitments to revive the economy during its two years in office.
For all of her youth, the inexperienced Paetongtarn failed to establish any real authority over the country, with most Thais presuming that her father was making all significant decisions.
However, Thaksin Shinawatra appears to have lost his political prowess. The Pheu Thai party's central policy of a digital wallet initiative, intended to deposit B10,000 (approximately $308) into the account of every Thai adult, has stalled and faced criticism for its ineffectiveness. Other ambitious plans, including legalizing casinos and creating a land bridge connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans, have also failed to come to fruition.
At a time of growing Thai nationalist sentiment due to the border war with Cambodia, suspicions within conservative circles have arisen regarding the Shinawatra family's previously solid, albeit now fractured, friendship with Hun Sen, raising doubts about their prioritization of national interests over personal business gains.
Consequently, Pheu Thai's popularity has plummeted, leading to speculation that it could lose many of its 140 seats in a subsequent election. Once an unbeatable electoral force dominating Thai politics for over two decades, it seems difficult to envision how it can regain its former dominance.
